China and Energy - Not What You Would Think

As the world’s largest population and fastest growing economy, China’s booming energy demand has coincided with a new era of eco-consciousness. Consequently, China’s energy infrastructure has come under intense global scrutiny. One of the biggest controversies surrounding the recent Beijing Olympics was the air quality – with its high particulate pollution, literally visible to the naked eye, would Beijing be a safe place to host scores of athletes? In terms of the big picture, what did this pollution say about China’s energy grid? While China undoubtedly has air- and water-quality issues that need to be addressed, attentions are often focused in the wrong places for the wrong reasons. Media and environmental groups are quick to cite China’s coal-fired plants as the source of the problem, which spring up at a rate of about 3-4 additional 500 MW plants a week; however, a recent study published by MIT professors Edward Steinfeld and Richard Lester have debunked the coal-fired myth. “The kinds of technology currently being adopted in China are not cheap. They're not buying junk, and in some cases the plants are employing state-of-the-art technology… [Findings suggest that emissions] depend almost entirely on the quality of the coal they use. When they're hit by price spikes, they buy low-grade coal, says Steinfeld. “The physical infrastructure of China's energy system is not an impediment;” rather, “new regulatory efforts probably need to be focused on the mines and coal markets.”

While efforts should be made to purify coal technologies in the short run, alternative energy technologies need to be developed to ensure sustainability for the long run. Contrary to common belief, China is a world leader in both the manufacturing and implementation of alternative energy infrastructure. The Three Gorges Dam in Sandouping, Yichang, Hubei, China is the largest in the world, capable of generating 22,500 MW. In 2005, China ranked 10th in the world for in-grid wind energy capabilities at 1,288 MW, but at the same time ranked 1st in the world for off-grid wind energy by a large margin with over 200,000 independent generators. China’s in-grid wind generation capabilities are planned to reach 30 GW by 2020, matching the Three Gorges Dam in capability. With current policies, wind capabilities are actually projected to reach 50 GW; if the PROC was to fully back wind policy, that projected value rises to over 120 GW in the same amount of time, accounting for 10% of all in-grid power generation. As of late 2007, China owned 60% of installed solar capability in the world.

One must understand the statistics before passing judgment. China has 20% of the world’s population but consumes only 10% of the world's energy and 4% of the world's oil, while the USA has only 5% of the world population and consumes 23% of the world's energy and 25% of the world's oil. China is the largest producer of C02, releasing 6.2 billion metric tons in 2006, while the US released 5.8 billion metric tons in the same year; however, in terms of per-capita production, the USA produced four times more, or 19 metric tons per capita, than China at 4.9 metric tons per capita.

There is no doubt that China has pollution issues that need to be addressed. As the world’s largest and fastest growing manufacturer and exporter of goods, it is unfeasible for China to just “cut” energy demand. Instead, source regulation needs to be implemented in the short-term and alternative energy infrastructure needs to be further implemented and developed for the long-term. At the same time, other industrialized nations need to look at their own per capita numbers and infrastructure capabilities and look beyond China’s unfortunate stigma and instead see its humongous potential.

-Kane